ad:tech State of the Industry: It's Getting Better All the Time

Yesterday, I had the honor of moderating the keynote panel at ad:tech Chicago. Below is a copy of the presentation I used to kick things off and give the panelists something to react to. It should be pretty self-explanatory without my voiceover.

One thing I'll point out is that on slide 9 I asked the crowd to weigh in via show of hands and some 80-90% voted for social media as the fastest growing area of digital marketing. But, as I mentioned in my post recapping my ad:tech webinar, "growth" can be widely interpreted.

I should also mention that @LenKendall makes a good point when he says, er... tweets, "When determining growth of ANYTHING. Factor in growth of population. That ratio will show you true growth vs. stagnation."

Overall, I thought the dialogue on the panel was great. Sean Finnegan of SMG was a great sport about slide 19, especially considering his kids were in the audience. Jeff Levick of AOL Advertising shared some interesting nuggets about the direction his company is heading -- specifically, around creation of original content. (Off-stage he told me that they have some 1,000+ writers in NYC cranking stuff out.) John Cantarella of Time.com had a great soundbyte as he lamented "parasitic aggregators" of content -- although he refused to name any, I chimed in with a Huff-Po cough. And Jeff Bell represented DOmedia well by calling attention to the need for better attribution management -- although that buzzword seems to have caused some confusion.

It definitely seems like the consensus is the volume of planning (and actual spending) activity is picking up. Both AOL and Time.com reported heavy increases in RFPs -- interesting, John pointed out that almost 100% of the requests are for custom packages, not straight ad units. And Sean and Jeff both said they've seen client budgets open up a bit headed into the holidays.

Unfortunately, we ran out of time before I could get to the SMS Q&A but we were able to squeeze in 2 live audience questions that called attention to trends in video and corporate social responsibility.

I'd like to thank Drew Ianni, ad:tech programming chair, for the opportunity to participate and CIMA, for nominating me to represent the organization. And, of course, my fellow panelists for engaging in the conversation and opening their kimonos a bit.

Looking forward to next year. Hopefully by then, WAY up will be the new up. Hey, we can imagine, can't we? (Sorry, had to close with another Beatles reference.)

State Of The Industry: ad:tech Chicago Keynote Panel Presented by CIMA

View more presentations from Aaron Goldman.

When it Comes to Digital Marketing, Is Up the New Up?

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I just posted a preview of my upcoming ad:tech Chicago keynote panel on the Connectual blog. Check it out for the inside track on the panelists, topics, and a discount link for conference passes. And please weigh in with any questions you'd like to see me ask these distinguished gentlemen.

Below is the official session overview...

State of the Industry (Presented by the Chicago Interactive Marketing Association)

Consumer generated content, social networking, widgets, online video, ad networks, activation, engagement, mobile marketing, the death of television as we know it and so much more—The digital revolution is in full swing and the velocity of change only seems to be increasing. The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) estimates that online advertising spending will surge past $20 billion in 2009 as marketers increasingly leverage digital media and technology platforms to establish a dialog with their customers, optimize messaging and delivery and, ultimately, drive brand preference. But what about the current recession and its impact on media and advertising? Is digital media suffering along with other platforms or is our industry benefiting from these tough times as marketers shift a disproportionate amount of spending to performance-based marketing channels?

We are pleased to partner with CIMA, the Chicago Interactive Marketing Association, to present this State of the Industry session and welcome Aaron Goldman, Managing Partner at Connectual and the Executive Director of CIMA as the moderator for this session. If you need a primer on where things stand today and also need to prepare to embrace and leverage what comes next, don’t miss this annual bellwether state-of-the-industry event.

MODERATOR:

Aaron Goldman, Managing Partner, Connectual

PANELISTS:

Jeffrey Davidoff, Former Senior VP, CMO, Orbitz

Sean Finnegan, President, Chief Digital Officer, Starcom MediaVest Group

John Cantarella, General Manager, TIME.com

Jeff Levick, President, Global Advertising and Strategy, AOL

Tilting the Tweet-o-meter

My Search Insider column (and, as I pointed out to @oliman on Twitter, I use the term "column" loosely) ran today. First time I've run on a Tuesday. MediaPost had a last-minute lineup shuffle in the wake of David Berkowitz heading to the Social Media Insider. Not to worry, I'll be back to my every-other-Wed. slot in 2 weeks.

As promised, this edition recapped the top 10 buzzwords from the Search Insider Summit.

Here they are:

1. Twitter
2. Attribution
3. Exchanges
4. Last-Click
5. Bless You, Gezundteit (tie)
6. Economy, Recession (tie)
7. Free, SEO (tie)
8. Affiliates
9. Social, Mobile (tie)
10. Osprey

In terms of my predictions for how the Buzz-o-meter would shake out, I batted .400 -- not bad for a baseball player, pretty lousy for a Search Insider. Oh well, as a true Cubs fan always says, wait til next year!

Search Insider Summit: Who's Ready to Catch a Buzz in Captiva?

In today's Search Insider column I break form from past conferences and offer a predictive Buzz-o-meter for next week's Search Insider Summit.

Here are my speculative Top 10:

1. Twitter
2. Google
3. Recession, Opportunity (tie)
4. Attribution, Post-Click (tie)
5. Local
6. Microsoft, Live Search, MSN, Kumo (tie)
7. Social Media
8. In-House
9. RFP
10. No-see-ums

As always, my next column will reveal the actual topics that had everyone buzzing. And I'll be sharing all the best sound-bytes on Twitter so make sure to follow me if you don't mind a dizzying array of tweets.

No Better Time Than the Present

I was tipped off by @gulfgoni of comScore on Twitter to a great blog post by Matt McCall on his blog, VC Confidential titled,"Why Great Companies Get Started in the Downturns."

Matt points to a wide swath of enduring brands that were created during the troubled economic times of the late 1800's, Great Depression, mid 1970's and early 1980's. He lists these 4 reasons why a recession is a great time to start a new biz. These may or may not be self-explanatory so do read the full post for the context...

"1. Dogs Will Try New Dog Food

2. Take Care of Darwin

3. Power of an Equity Culture

4. Weak Gazelles are Pruned"

He closes with this graph that I'm certainly taking to heart as I venture out with Connectual...

"So, yes it is ugly out there and about to get even harder but start-ups are used to hard times and are well suited, if managed properly, to thrive in the downturn and accelerate during the recovery. The trick is to stay alive one day longer than your competitors..."

As I noted in my post explaining Why I Got Connectual, the recession has brought on a number of challenges that my firm specifically addresses to the point where I think I'll do better the longer the economy remains in the tank. As long as companies are under pressure to drive revenue without the ability to make long-term investments in staff or other resources, it will be readily apparent how Connectual can add value.

As for accelerating during the recovery, my hope is to be so entrenched in the client/provider procurement process and have demonstrated such tangible efficiencies that noone will want to go back to the old way of doing business -- read: pushing those pesky RFP's back and forth -- when the economy turns around.

In terms of staying alive "one day longer" -- I love the simple wisdom but it ain't that easy when you're competing with everyone and noone all at the same time. I guess that's what pursuing a Blue Ocean strategy is truly about though!

Why I Got Connectual

In today's Search Insider I explain the rationale for starting Connectual, namely 6 challenging trends brought on by the recession that I think my firm can address head-on...

1. Marketers are cutting budgets across the board.

2. Agencies are feeling increased margin pressure.

3. Media companies are struggling to break through the clutter of myriad digital marketing solutions.

4. Technology providers are unable to fully realize their value proposition.

5. The sales process is becoming increasing complicated and opaque.

6. Consumers are becoming more fearful of how their data's being used for marketing.

Numbers 1 thru 4 I'll have solutions for right off the bat. (Granted, they'll get better with time as the Connectual team and portfolio grows.) I'll need a good 6 months or so to get after numbers 5 and 6 as they require the development of proprietary technology.

More to come. Here's the blurb...

It's Time To Get Connectual

Sometimes in the worst of times come the best of opportunities. You just have to know where to look. And when you find one of those diamonds in the rough, you have to act quickly. It's all about timing. And gumption.

CIMA Survey #6: Trends in Interactive Marketing

Tonight I'll be moderating a panel at the first CIMA byte of the year. We'll be kicking it off with the release of the results of CIMA's 6th bi-annual survey on the state of the interactive marketing industry.

Troy Mastin, analyst to the stars, er... CIMA will be presenting the research and has given me a sneak preview. Here are the 5 key insights he's pulled out of the data (along with my comments.)

1. A sharp decline in the health of the industry noted. (No surprise here.)

2. Economic conditions and industry dynamics impacting vertical categories. (CPG up, auto/finance down... again no surprise.)

3. Rich media and search seen as strongest established tactics; Mobile and social represent the most interesting areas of growth. (The fact that rich media outscored search suprised me. I've seen display budgets getting cut faster than search but maybe all the buzz around Hulu skewed people's responses.)

4. Google and Facebook seen as the Industry leaders but “up and coming” solutions continue to fragment the landscape. (Interesting that Facebook is seen as a leader despite very poor monetization.)

5. Direct marketing viewed as better insulated than advertising for the first time. (When in Rome, er... Recession...)

After Troy presents the research, I'll lead a discussion with this esteemed panel:

-Brian Mandelbaum, Vice President, Interactive Group Media Director, Cramer-Krasselt
-Michael Kahn, SVP, Marketing, Performics\VivaKi Nerve Center
-Julie Wainwright, CEO, SmartNow.com
-Joe Laszlo, Director of Research, Interactive Advertising Bureau

If you weren't able to pre-register for this event, unfortunately we're not taking walk-ups. But I'm pretty sure we'll be recording the event and posting to the CIMA site so you can catch up on the dialogue and what color shirt I was wearing. (Hint: some might call it lavender.)

UPDATE 3/25: Troy's presentation has been posted to the CIMA site and event pics are up on Picasa. Here's one of me getting cozy with the panelists:

Yes it was a good discussion...

Google Cans Print & Radio: And Then There Was One

This past week, Google announced it was signing off from the radio space just a week after closing the books on its print division. I can't help feeling like these decisions were a bit short-sighted with Google caving to investors' insatiable demand for increasing immediate profits, rather than riding out the recession and readying to rule the traditional ad roost.

dMarc was a $102 million cash (with earn-out up to $1.13 billion) acquisition just 3 years ago. How do you just throw in the towel? I can't imagine the burn-rate was all that high. In its announcement, Google said it will have to lay off some 40 folks and sell off its "Radio Automation" technology. This company has nearly $16 billion on cash in hand and over 20,000 employees! Google Audio Ads was but a drop in the bucket. And radio advertising is still a $20 billion industry.

In the post-mortem on the Google Traditional Media blog, Susan Wojcicki's said, "Deciding to close products is never easy, but we will continue to focus on advertising products that provide measurability for advertisers, and are relevant and useful for users, listeners and viewers."

So what was the problem with Google Audio Ads?

It wasn't measurability. Per the Audio Ads AdWords homepage -- "Using call reporting and integrated Google Analytics tools, you can track customer calls, website conversions, revenue, and other metrics to measure the impact of your radio campaigns."

So was it the relevant and useful piece? Hard to quantify but Google seemed to have plenty of case studies showing positive consumer response. After all, the fundamental promise of opening up traditional media to the long tail was that consumers would receive more targeted messages by having smaller/local advertisers able to play alongside the national bigs.

As for Google Print Ads -- those were hella-measurable what with their 5 trackable calls-to-action and even a 2D barcode. Here's what the bottom of the ads looked like...



Perhaps the real problem was that neither division was able to secure sustainable sources of prime inventory. With publishers and networks leaning more towards Google as enemy than friend, it wasn't able to procure the type of space that would hold up against the mass budget cuts happening all around us right now.

And that whole bit about accountable advertising being the last to go from the media budget? Not so much. At least not when it came to Google Print and Radio, given that they were still somewhat experimental platforms being tapped by the types of advertisers that are likely feeling the brunt of decreased consumer spending.

So this leaves Google TV as the last traditional format standing. They seem to have had moderate success here, lining up partners such as NBC Universal. But, by many accounts, most of the inventory it has access to is remnant. And, with TV advertising still a roughly $50 billion indsutry, you can bet the folks holding the keys to the prime space are not going to relinquesh them to Google anytime soon.

So is it just a matter of time before Google tunes out of TV and gets back to what it does best -- "organizing the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful?"

Or will it continue along this parallel-ish path to disintermediate, er... streamline the worldwide advertising ecosystem and make it inherently measurable and valuable?

Or, perhaps the real question is, will Google continue to pander to the Street's demands to stay profitable today or build for the long-term by continuing to gain share one point at a time in traditional media so that, when the recession clouds clear, it is poised to be the top beneficiary from increased ad spending?

Ahhh.... to borrow the old NBA tagline -- I love this game!

Anecdotally, as of today, Google was still running paid search ads for its Audio Ads division:





I always wondered who manages Google's in-house campaigns. And how does the algorithm rank their ads? Does Google get a quality score like everyone else? How do they tie back ROI to their campaigns? Could it be that the decision to shutter its Audio Ads division was that the opportunity cost of showing house ads instead of paying advertisers got too high? :)

Tough Times for Jobs, Good Times for Job Search

Things have gone from bad to worse for people with(out) jobs or named Jobs.

First there was the news that December saw over 100,000 people lose their jobs at America's 500 biggest public companies -- and, so far, January hasn't been any better with more layoffs including, most recently, Microsoft, which just let go of 1,400 employees and plans to sack 3,600 more. Then there was the news that Steve Jobs' health has deteriorated to the point where he has to take a leave of absence from Apple.

Not surprisingly, all this has been a boon for job search sites -- not to mention, Steve Jobs rumor sites. On Thursday, comScore released an analysis of the job search category in the U.S. Apparently, job search was the "fastest growing content site category" last year with visitors up 51 percent to 18.8 million.

As for the top job search sites, CareerBuilder was #1 in December at 9+ million uniques, Yahoo/Hot Jobs #2 at 5.5+MM, Indeed.com #3 at 5+MM, and Monster #4 at 3.7+MM. Of the top 10 job search sites, only Monster reflected negative year-over-year traffic. Maybe it has something to do with its crummy functionality and natural search optimization -- as I pointed out in my recent Search Insider column, The Elusive Job Search.

Indeed.com, the one job search engine I cited as actually delivering the goods was up 88% year-over-year in traffic. It was also responsible for my wife turning her job search into a job find! (See my comment here for the full story.)

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like things are going to turn around here in the States anytime soon -- regardless of who's in the White House. While there may be one segment of the digital media community that's found a silver lining in all this mess, let's hope for everyone's sake that, at this time next year, we're looking at declining traffic for job search sites -- and improved health for Steve.

2009 Outlook for Search: 95 Characters at a Time

In yesterday's Search Insider I busted out a little search Haiku. If Haiku 1.0 was 5, 7, 5 syllables, Haiku 2.0 is 25, 35, 35 characters.

Click Here To Read
The Full Post; Methinks You'll Get
A Kick Out of It But I Won't Boast.

There's No Buzz-ness like SIS Buzz-ness

In today's Search Insider, I recap the Buzz (and lack thereof) from last week's Search Insider Summit. Here were the top 10 buzzwords from the show.

1. Google
2. Economy, Recession (tie)
3. Data, Analytics, Attribution (tie)
4. iPhone, Mobile (tie)
5. Microsoft
6. Relationship, Transparency (tie)
7. Strategy, Tactics (tie)
8. Bid Management, Quality Score (tie)
9. Omniture
10. Social

Honorable Mentions: Long Tail, Hope, Integration

It's Not All Doom and Gloom

Proving once again that flat is the new up, today comScore reported $534 million in online sales for Black Friday, up 1% over last year. And, while the 2008 holiday season to date is down 4% versus '07, the combination of Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday are up 2% so there's some (flat) momentum here.

Update 12/3: comScore reported today that Cyber Monday saw $846 million in online spending, up 15% over 2007 -- the second heaviest day of online sales since they've been tracking. Could up be the new up again?

"Flat is the New Up"

I've found myself using this sound-byte on more than one occasion recently so I thought it was worthy of its own post. I first heard it second-hand at DPAC with attribution given to Mr. Sean Finnegan of SMG. I've dropped it in many a budget conversation as marketers look ahead to 2009 and we realign our expectations. Thanks for the nugget Finney!

Update: MC Finney reached out to clarify that he did not come up with this phrase. He credits this Newsweek piece with turning him on to it.

Update 11/25: In further "flat is the new up" news: comScore forecasts flat growth for '08 holiday ecommerce spend.

Update 12/16: Just came across this variant from Rob Norman of Group M: "Not bad is the new great."

Update 5/7/09: This just in from the MediaPost Search Insider Summit, "Browse is the new buy."

Searching for Resolution in a Recession?

In today's Search Insider column, I pick up where I left off, ah... who am I kidding, repurpose my POV from the presentation I gave at DPAC yesterday. Included some good nuggets of research from OMD's proprietary Snapshots platform to help make sense of what's happening and what we can expect from consumers going forward. Here's the blurb:

Is Search Recession-Proof?
Posted October 29th, 2008 by Aaron Goldman

By the time this column is published, I’ll have completed my duties as moderator for what I’m sure was a riveting session — with fellow Search Insider Gerry Bavaro on the panel, how can it not be? — on search in a recessionary climate at the Digital Publishing and Advertising Conference yesterday in New York. I did a fair amount of prep for this session — not to mention, had a lot of fun with image search — so I thought I’d squeeze a little more mileage out of it here.

Will Job Search Become Job Find?

In yesterday's Search Insider, I lamented the state of the economy and the job search process it has touched off for so many. Using my newly-unemployed wife as a case study -- she loves when I do that, by the way -- I unsuccessfully traversed the major job sites (Monster and Career Builder) after not being satisfied by the results I found at the general search engines (Google). Finally, I turned to Indeed.com -- a true job search engine that may turn out to be the job find engine we'd been searching for.

The Elusive Job Search
Posted October 15th, 2008 by Aaron Goldman
Like many of my search marketing brethren, I’ve been somewhat insulated from the hefty budget and job cuts as the U.S. economy tanked faster than the Chicago Cubs’ World Series hopes. That is, until my wife, Lisa, was one of the 173,955 victims of mass layoffs in the U.S. in August. So how did Lisa start out her search for a new job? The same way most people start out any search. She Googled it. It seems search is playing a heightened role for job-seekers across the board...